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ASVO vs Béké Bembèrèkè — Championnat National 2019

ASVO
ASVO
FT
2 – 0
Béké Bembèrèkè
Béké Bembèrèkè
3/23/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 6Stade d'Adjohoun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

ASVO45%
×Draw31%
Béké Bembèrèkè24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASVO
1.13
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.73

ASVO creates 55% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 97 away

creates per match

ASVO
1.10
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.91

allows per match

ASVO
0.55
Béké Bembèrèkè
1.15

finishing

ASVO+0.00on par
Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASVO ↓

Béké Bembèrèkè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

ASVO or draw
76%
ASVO or Béké Bembèrèkè
69%
Draw or Béké Bembèrèkè
55%

Winning margin

ASVO wins by 2+
19%
Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ASVO 1+ goals
68%
ASVO 2+ goals
31%
ASVO 3+ goals
11%
Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals
52%
Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals
17%
Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ASVO (draw refunded)
66%
Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASVO at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.55 · 112 matches

Béké Bembèrèkè away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASVO attack 1.10 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 0.91 + ASVO defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ASVO scores more
45%
level
31%
Béké Bembèrèkè scores more
24%

ASVO at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ASVO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASVO vs Béké Bembèrèkè

ASVO beat Béké Bembèrèkè 2-0 in Championnat National on March 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stade d'Adjohoun in Adjohoun.