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ASVO vs Ayema — Championnat National 2019

ASVO
ASVO
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ayema
Ayema
11/22/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

ASVO39%
×Draw34%
Ayema27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASVO
0.95
Ayema
0.72

ASVO creates 32% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 119 away

creates per match

ASVO
1.09
Ayema
0.88

allows per match

ASVO
0.57
Ayema
0.80

finishing

ASVO+0.00on par
Ayema+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASVO ↓

Ayema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

ASVO or draw
73%
ASVO or Ayema
66%
Draw or Ayema
61%

Winning margin

ASVO wins by 2+
15%
Ayema wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ASVO 1+ goals
61%
ASVO 2+ goals
25%
ASVO 3+ goals
7%
Ayema 1+ goals
51%
Ayema 2+ goals
16%
Ayema 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ASVO (draw refunded)
60%
Ayema (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASVO at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.57 · 109 matches

Ayema away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.80 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASVO attack 1.09 + Ayema defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ayema attack 0.88 + ASVO defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ASVO scores more
39%
level
34%
Ayema scores more
27%

ASVO at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ASVO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: ASVO 0–0 Ayema

ASVO and Ayema drew 0-0 in Championnat National on November 22, 2025.