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ASVO vs ASOS — Championnat National 2019

ASVO
ASVO
FT
1 – 3
ASOS
ASOS
2/20/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 6Centre d’excellence de football de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

ASVO48%
×Draw30%
ASOS22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASVO
1.21
ASOS
0.72

ASVO creates 68% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 39 away

creates per match

ASVO
1.11
ASOS
0.87

allows per match

ASVO
0.56
ASOS
1.31

finishing

ASVO+0.00on par
ASOS+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASVO ↓

ASOS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ASVO or draw
78%
ASVO or ASOS
70%
Draw or ASOS
52%

Winning margin

ASVO wins by 2+
21%
ASOS wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ASVO 1+ goals
70%
ASVO 2+ goals
34%
ASVO 3+ goals
12%
ASOS 1+ goals
51%
ASOS 2+ goals
16%
ASOS 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ASVO (draw refunded)
68%
ASOS (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASVO at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.56 · 111 matches

ASOS away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.31 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASVO attack 1.11 + ASOS defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

ASOS attack 0.87 + ASVO defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ASVO scores more
48%
level
30%
ASOS scores more
22%

ASVO at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ASVO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASVO 1 – 3 ASOS

ASOS beat ASVO 3-1 in Championnat National on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Centre d’excellence de football de Missérété in Akpro-Missérété.