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ASV Neumarkt vs Weiden — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Weiden
Weiden
S. Mjaki 75'
E. Meyer 25'
P. Bytomski 90+1'
3/8/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 24Stadion am Deininger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

ASV Neumarkt46%
×Draw23%
Weiden31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV Neumarkt
1.76
Weiden
1.41

ASV Neumarkt creates 25% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 50 away

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.76
Weiden
1.32

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.49
Weiden
1.76

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par
Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

Weiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw
69%
ASV Neumarkt or Weiden
77%
Draw or Weiden
54%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
24%
Weiden wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
83%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
52%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
26%
Weiden 1+ goals
76%
Weiden 2+ goals
41%
Weiden 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
60%
Weiden (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

Weiden away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.76 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + Weiden defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.76

Weiden attack 1.32 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more
46%
level
23%
Weiden scores more
31%

ASV Neumarkt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
E. Meyer
75'
S. Mjaki
90+1'
P. Bytomski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASV Neumarkt vs Weiden

ASV Neumarkt beat Weiden 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 8, 2025.

Goals: E. Meyer (25'), S. Mjaki (75'), P. Bytomski (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion am Deininger Weg in Neumarkt in der Oberpfalz.