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ASV 13 vs Union Mauer — Landesliga - Wien 2019

ASV 13
ASV 13
FT
0 – 3
Union Mauer
Union Mauer
10/9/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 8Sportplatz ASV 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

ASV 1322%
×Draw21%
Union Mauer58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV 13
1.23
Union Mauer
2.12

Union Mauer creates 72% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 60 away

creates per match

ASV 13
1.48
Union Mauer
2.03

allows per match

ASV 13
2.21
Union Mauer
0.97

finishing

ASV 13+0.00on par
Union Mauer+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV 13 ↓

Union Mauer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

ASV 13 or draw
42%
ASV 13 or Union Mauer
79%
Draw or Union Mauer
78%

Winning margin

ASV 13 wins by 2+
9%
Union Mauer wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

ASV 13 1+ goals
71%
ASV 13 2+ goals
35%
ASV 13 3+ goals
13%
Union Mauer 1+ goals
88%
Union Mauer 2+ goals
62%
Union Mauer 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

ASV 13 (draw refunded)
27%
Union Mauer (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV 13 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 58 matches

Union Mauer away — creates 2.03, concedes 0.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV 13 attack 1.48 + Union Mauer defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Union Mauer attack 2.03 + ASV 13 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ASV 13 scores more
22%
level
21%
Union Mauer scores more
58%

Union Mauer at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Union Mauer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASV 13 vs Union Mauer

Union Mauer beat ASV 13 3-0 in Landesliga - Wien on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASV 13 in Wien.