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ASV 13 vs Red Star Penzing — Landesliga - Wien 2019

ASV 13
ASV 13
FT
1 – 2
Red Star Penzing
Red Star Penzing
6/8/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 28Sportplatz ASV 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

ASV 1334%
×Draw23%
Red Star Penzing43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV 13
1.59
Red Star Penzing
1.80

Red Star Penzing creates 13% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 30 away

creates per match

ASV 13
1.48
Red Star Penzing
1.40

allows per match

ASV 13
2.21
Red Star Penzing
1.70

finishing

ASV 13+0.00on par
Red Star Penzing+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV 13 ↓

Red Star Penzing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

ASV 13 or draw
57%
ASV 13 or Red Star Penzing
77%
Draw or Red Star Penzing
66%

Winning margin

ASV 13 wins by 2+
17%
Red Star Penzing wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

ASV 13 1+ goals
80%
ASV 13 2+ goals
47%
ASV 13 3+ goals
21%
Red Star Penzing 1+ goals
83%
Red Star Penzing 2+ goals
54%
Red Star Penzing 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

ASV 13 (draw refunded)
44%
Red Star Penzing (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV 13 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 58 matches

Red Star Penzing away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV 13 attack 1.48 + Red Star Penzing defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Red Star Penzing attack 1.40 + ASV 13 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ASV 13 scores more
34%
level
23%
Red Star Penzing scores more
43%

Red Star Penzing at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Red Star Penzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: ASV 13 1–2 Red Star Penzing

Red Star Penzing beat ASV 13 2-1 in Landesliga - Wien on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASV 13 in Wien.