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ASV 13 vs Mannswörth — Landesliga - Wien 2019

ASV 13
ASV 13
FT
2 – 4
Mannswörth
Mannswörth
10/22/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 10Sportplatz ASV 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

ASV 1345%
×Draw21%
Mannswörth33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV 13
2.03
Mannswörth
1.73

ASV 13 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 59 away

creates per match

ASV 13
1.48
Mannswörth
1.24

allows per match

ASV 13
2.21
Mannswörth
2.58

finishing

ASV 13+0.00on par
Mannswörth+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV 13 ↓

Mannswörth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

ASV 13 or draw
67%
ASV 13 or Mannswörth
79%
Draw or Mannswörth
55%

Winning margin

ASV 13 wins by 2+
25%
Mannswörth wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ASV 13 1+ goals
87%
ASV 13 2+ goals
60%
ASV 13 3+ goals
33%
Mannswörth 1+ goals
82%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
52%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

ASV 13 (draw refunded)
57%
Mannswörth (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV 13 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 58 matches

Mannswörth away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.58 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV 13 attack 1.48 + Mannswörth defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.03

Mannswörth attack 1.24 + ASV 13 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ASV 13 scores more
45%
level
21%
Mannswörth scores more
33%

ASV 13 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ASV 13 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: ASV 13 2–4 Mannswörth

Mannswörth beat ASV 13 4-2 in Landesliga - Wien on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASV 13 in Wien.