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ASV 13 vs Donau — Landesliga - Wien 2019

ASV 13
ASV 13
CANC
21:00
Donau
Donau
5/24/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 30Sportplatz ASV 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

ASV 1329%
×Draw22%
Donau49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV 13
1.46
Donau
1.94

Donau creates 33% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

ASV 13
1.48
Donau
1.67

allows per match

ASV 13
2.21
Donau
1.45

finishing

ASV 13+0.00on par
Donau+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV 13 ↓

Donau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

ASV 13 or draw
51%
ASV 13 or Donau
78%
Draw or Donau
71%

Winning margin

ASV 13 wins by 2+
13%
Donau wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

ASV 13 1+ goals
77%
ASV 13 2+ goals
43%
ASV 13 3+ goals
18%
Donau 1+ goals
86%
Donau 2+ goals
58%
Donau 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

ASV 13 (draw refunded)
37%
Donau (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV 13 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 58 matches

Donau away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.45 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV 13 attack 1.48 + Donau defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Donau attack 1.67 + ASV 13 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ASV 13 scores more
29%
level
22%
Donau scores more
49%

Donau at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Donau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: ASV 13 host Donau

May 24, 2021: ASV 13 take on Donau in Landesliga - Wien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

ASV 13 host Donau at Sportplatz ASV 13.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.