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ASV 13 vs Dinamo Helfort — Landesliga - Wien 2019

ASV 13
ASV 13
FT
2 – 5
Dinamo Helfort
Dinamo Helfort
3/29/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 18Sportplatz Kalksburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

ASV 1324%
×Draw21%
Dinamo Helfort56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV 13
1.32
Dinamo Helfort
2.12

Dinamo Helfort creates 61% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 61 away

creates per match

ASV 13
1.48
Dinamo Helfort
2.02

allows per match

ASV 13
2.21
Dinamo Helfort
1.16

finishing

ASV 13+0.00on par
Dinamo Helfort+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV 13 ↓

Dinamo Helfort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

ASV 13 or draw
44%
ASV 13 or Dinamo Helfort
79%
Draw or Dinamo Helfort
76%

Winning margin

ASV 13 wins by 2+
10%
Dinamo Helfort wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

ASV 13 1+ goals
73%
ASV 13 2+ goals
38%
ASV 13 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Helfort 1+ goals
88%
Dinamo Helfort 2+ goals
62%
Dinamo Helfort 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

ASV 13 (draw refunded)
30%
Dinamo Helfort (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV 13 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 58 matches

Dinamo Helfort away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV 13 attack 1.48 + Dinamo Helfort defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dinamo Helfort attack 2.02 + ASV 13 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ASV 13 scores more
24%
level
21%
Dinamo Helfort scores more
56%

Dinamo Helfort at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dinamo Helfort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: ASV 13 2–5 Dinamo Helfort

Dinamo Helfort beat ASV 13 5-2 in Landesliga - Wien on March 29, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Kalksburg in Wien.