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Astrio vs IFK Goteborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Astrio
Astrio
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
8/22/2019Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundSöndrums IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Astrio6%
×Draw11%
IFK Goteborg83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astrio
0.78
IFK Goteborg
3.24

IFK Goteborg creates 315% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Astrio
0.50
IFK Goteborg
2.47

allows per match

Astrio
4.00
IFK Goteborg
1.06

finishing

Astrio+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astrio ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–210%
0–311%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Astrio or draw
17%
Astrio or IFK Goteborg
89%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
94%

Winning margin

Astrio wins by 2+
2%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Astrio 1+ goals
54%
Astrio 2+ goals
18%
Astrio 3+ goals
4%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
96%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
83%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Astrio (draw refunded)
7%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astrio at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astrio attack 0.50 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.78

IFK Goteborg attack 2.47 + Astrio defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Astrio scores more
6%
level
11%
IFK Goteborg scores more
83%

IFK Goteborg at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Astrio 0–4 IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg beat Astrio 4-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 22, 2019.

The match was played at Söndrums IP in Eketånga-Söndrum, Halmstad.