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Astrio vs Falkenbergs FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Astrio
Astrio
FT
0 – 9
HT: 0 – 2
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
9/30/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundSöndrums IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Astrio6%
×Draw10%
Falkenbergs FF84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astrio
0.90
Falkenbergs FF
3.50

Falkenbergs FF creates 289% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Astrio
0.50
Falkenbergs FF
3.00

allows per match

Astrio
4.00
Falkenbergs FF
1.29

finishing

Astrio+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astrio ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–28%
0–39%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Astrio or draw
16%
Astrio or Falkenbergs FF
90%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
94%

Winning margin

Astrio wins by 2+
2%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
67%

Team goals

Astrio 1+ goals
59%
Astrio 2+ goals
23%
Astrio 3+ goals
6%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
97%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
85%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Astrio (draw refunded)
7%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astrio at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astrio attack 0.50 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.90

Falkenbergs FF attack 3.00 + Astrio defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Astrio scores more
6%
level
10%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
84%

Falkenbergs FF at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Astrio 0–9 Falkenbergs FF

Falkenbergs FF beat Astrio 9-0 in Svenska Cupen on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Söndrums IP in Eketånga-Söndrum, Halmstad.