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Astrakhan vs Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. — Second League - Group 1 2020

Astrakhan
Astrakhan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
5/4/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion imeni Kolosova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Astrakhan43%
×Draw29%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astrakhan
1.24
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
0.96

Astrakhan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 16 away

creates per match

Astrakhan
1.35
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
0.81

allows per match

Astrakhan
1.10
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.13

finishing

Astrakhan+0.00on par
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astrakhan ↓

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Astrakhan or draw
71%
Astrakhan or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
71%
Draw or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
57%

Winning margin

Astrakhan wins by 2+
19%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Astrakhan 1+ goals
71%
Astrakhan 2+ goals
35%
Astrakhan 3+ goals
13%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals
62%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals
25%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Astrakhan (draw refunded)
60%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astrakhan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astrakhan attack 1.35 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 0.81 + Astrakhan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Astrakhan scores more
43%
level
29%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more
29%

Astrakhan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Astrakhan 1–1 Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

Astrakhan and Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion imeni Kolosova in Astrakhan'.