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Astrakhan vs Sochi II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Astrakhan
Astrakhan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sochi II
Sochi II
10/4/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stadium Named after A.I. Kolosov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Astrakhan42%
×Draw26%
Sochi II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astrakhan
1.40
Sochi II
1.18

Astrakhan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 16 away

creates per match

Astrakhan
1.35
Sochi II
1.25

allows per match

Astrakhan
1.10
Sochi II
1.44

finishing

Astrakhan+0.00on par
Sochi II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astrakhan ↓

Sochi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Astrakhan or draw
68%
Astrakhan or Sochi II
74%
Draw or Sochi II
58%

Winning margin

Astrakhan wins by 2+
20%
Sochi II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Astrakhan 1+ goals
75%
Astrakhan 2+ goals
41%
Astrakhan 3+ goals
17%
Sochi II 1+ goals
69%
Sochi II 2+ goals
33%
Sochi II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Astrakhan (draw refunded)
57%
Sochi II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astrakhan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Sochi II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astrakhan attack 1.35 + Sochi II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sochi II attack 1.25 + Astrakhan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Astrakhan scores more
42%
level
26%
Sochi II scores more
32%

Astrakhan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Astrakhan 3–1 Sochi II

Astrakhan beat Sochi II 3-1 in Second League - Group 1 on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadium Named after A.I. Kolosov.