Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Astrakhan vs Kuban Kholding — Second League - Group 1 2020

Astrakhan
Astrakhan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
10/22/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 1Stadion imeni Kolosova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Astrakhan34%
×Draw28%
Kuban Kholding38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astrakhan
1.16
Kuban Kholding
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 91 away

creates per match

Astrakhan
1.35
Kuban Kholding
1.35

allows per match

Astrakhan
1.10
Kuban Kholding
0.97

finishing

Astrakhan+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astrakhan ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Astrakhan or draw
62%
Astrakhan or Kuban Kholding
72%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
66%

Winning margin

Astrakhan wins by 2+
14%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Astrakhan 1+ goals
69%
Astrakhan 2+ goals
32%
Astrakhan 3+ goals
11%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
71%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
35%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Astrakhan (draw refunded)
48%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astrakhan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astrakhan attack 1.35 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Astrakhan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Astrakhan scores more
34%
level
28%
Kuban Kholding scores more
38%

Kuban Kholding at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Astrakhan vs Kuban Kholding

Astrakhan and Kuban Kholding drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion imeni Kolosova in Astrakhan'.