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Astrakhan vs Druzhba — Second League - Group 1 2020

Astrakhan
Astrakhan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Druzhba
Druzhba
11/19/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 5Stadion imeni Kolosova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Astrakhan46%
×Draw27%
Druzhba26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astrakhan
1.37
Druzhba
0.96

Astrakhan creates 43% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 97 away

creates per match

Astrakhan
1.35
Druzhba
0.82

allows per match

Astrakhan
1.10
Druzhba
1.39

finishing

Astrakhan+0.00on par
Druzhba+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astrakhan ↓

Druzhba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Astrakhan or draw
74%
Astrakhan or Druzhba
73%
Draw or Druzhba
54%

Winning margin

Astrakhan wins by 2+
22%
Druzhba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Astrakhan 1+ goals
75%
Astrakhan 2+ goals
40%
Astrakhan 3+ goals
16%
Druzhba 1+ goals
62%
Druzhba 2+ goals
25%
Druzhba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Astrakhan (draw refunded)
64%
Druzhba (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astrakhan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Druzhba away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astrakhan attack 1.35 + Druzhba defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.37

Druzhba attack 0.82 + Astrakhan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Astrakhan scores more
46%
level
27%
Druzhba scores more
26%

Astrakhan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Astrakhan 2–0 Druzhba

Astrakhan beat Druzhba 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion imeni Kolosova in Astrakhan'.