Astoria Walldorf U19 3–6 Viktoria Köln U19

Astoria Walldorf U19

FT

3 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Viktoria Köln U19

I. Okwubor 89'

J. Thunert 74'

N. Wannemacher 56'

J. Sticker 71', 31'

L. de Meester 65' (pen), 53'

B. Sylaj 60'

A. Hoti 55'

5/21/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 3Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Astoria Walldorf U1934%

×Draw21%

Viktoria Köln U1945%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astoria Walldorf U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

2.13

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.84

Viktoria Köln U19

2.13

Viktoria Köln U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 71 away

1.65

creates per match

1.44

2.83

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.65

Viktoria Köln U19

1.44

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.83

Viktoria Köln U19

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf U19 or draw

55%

Astoria Walldorf U19 or Viktoria Köln U19

79%

Draw or Viktoria Köln U19

66%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

17%

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

84%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

55%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

28%

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

88%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

63%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.83 · 23 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.03 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.65 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.84

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.44 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

34%

level

21%

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

45%

Viktoria Köln U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viktoria Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Pignotti← F. Wagner

31'

J. Sticker

46'

J. Streich← S. Katich

46'

46'

53'

55'

56'

59'

59'

B. Sylaj← B. Gediktas

60'

B. Sylaj

62'

L. Baumert← A. Salihu

65'

L. de MeesterPenalty

69'

I. Okwubor← N. Wannemacher

69'

71'

74'

78'

89'

Astoria

Viktoria

Hill

Amaniampo

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roberto Pinto

6'▲M. Pignotti←▼F. Wagner

46'▲J. Streich←▼S. Katich

46'▲J. Thunert←▼L. Marx

62'▲L. Baumert←▼A. Salihu

69'▲I. Okwubor←▼N. Wannemacher

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

PignottiStreichThunertBaumertOkwuborJörns

Manager: M. Wilhelm

46'▲F. Türkmen←▼Z. Keita

59'▲K. Taskale←▼A. Hoti

59'▲B. Sylaj←▼B. Gediktas

69'▲L. Soldanski←▼H. Ali

78'▲A. Amyn←▼J. Sticker

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

TürkmenTaskaleSylajSoldanskiAmynMemetiNeumann

U19 Bundesliga: Astoria Walldorf U19 3–6 Viktoria Köln U19

Viktoria Köln U19 beat Astoria Walldorf U19 6-3 in U19 Bundesliga on May 21, 2023.

Goals: J. Sticker (31', 71'), L. de Meester (53', 65' pen), A. Hoti (55'), N. Wannemacher (56'), B. Sylaj (60'), J. Thunert (74'), I. Okwubor (89').

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark in Walldorf.

Astoria Walldorf U19 vs Viktoria Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Astoria Walldorf U19 3–6 Viktoria Köln U19