Astoria Walldorf U19 2–4 Stuttgart U19

Astoria Walldorf U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Stuttgart U19

L. Baumert 51'

L. Helbig 21'

E. Widmann 90+2'

C. Farnerud 77'

M. Wagner 17'

S. Di Benedetto 10'

2/11/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 13Kunstrasenplatzn FCA Walldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Astoria Walldorf U1919%

×Draw17%

Stuttgart U1964%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astoria Walldorf U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgart U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.80

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.48

Stuttgart U19

2.80

Stuttgart U19 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 70 away

1.65

creates per match

2.77

2.83

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.65

Stuttgart U19

2.77

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.83

Stuttgart U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf U19 or draw

36%

Astoria Walldorf U19 or Stuttgart U19

83%

Draw or Stuttgart U19

81%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

8%

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

77%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

43%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

19%

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

94%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

76%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.83 · 23 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.77, concedes 1.31 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.65 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.77 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

19%

level

17%

Stuttgart U19 scores more

64%

Stuttgart U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

17'

21'

51'

60'

63'

I. Okwubor← F. Wagner

77'

C. Farnerud

82'

E. Widmann← B. Boakye

88'

P. König← M. Wagner

90+2'

E. Widmann

Astoria

Stuttgart

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Roberto Pinto

60'▲A. Dönmez←▼L. Ebert

63'▲I. Okwubor←▼F. Wagner

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

DönmezOkwuborKorotkoSalihuThunertHütterOnohiol

Manager: N. Willig

82'▲E. Widmann←▼B. Boakye

88'▲P. König←▼M. Wagner

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

WidmannKönigKuranyiSahinDotzauerFritschiBarth