Astoria Walldorf U19 0–5 Mainz 05 U19

Astoria Walldorf U19

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Mainz 05 U19

A. Bagdadi 86'

D. Kaygin 55', 45' (pen)

L. Bierschenk 36'

G. Degtjarevs 12'

8/21/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 2Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Astoria Walldorf U1920%

×Draw18%

Mainz 05 U1962%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astoria Walldorf U19Expected goals in this matchMainz 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.58

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.44

Mainz 05 U19

2.58

Mainz 05 U19 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 70 away

1.65

creates per match

2.33

2.83

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.65

Mainz 05 U19

2.33

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.83

Mainz 05 U19

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf U19 or draw

38%

Astoria Walldorf U19 or Mainz 05 U19

82%

Draw or Mainz 05 U19

80%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

9%

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

76%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

42%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

18%

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

92%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

72%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.83 · 23 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.65 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.33 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

20%

level

18%

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

62%

Mainz 05 U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

G. Degtjarevs

36'

L. Bierschenk

45'

D. KayginPenalty

46'

P. Kohlstadt← A. Salihu

55'

D. Kaygin

58'

L. Baumert← A. Müller

61'

A. Dardari← G. Degtjarevs

61'

M. Kalemba← Y. Azahaf

61'

N. Leipold← D. Azakir

65'

F. Wagner← S. Beikert

65'

L. Marx← L. Kritter

77'

A. Bagdadi← D. Kaygin

78'

M. Hütter← L. Safranek

78'

J. Amann← D. Gleiber

86'

A. Bagdadi

Astoria

Mainz

▼

⚽2

▼

Kaygin

Schulz

▼

Gleiber

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roberto Pinto

46'▲P. Kohlstadt←▼A. Salihu

58'▲L. Baumert←▼A. Müller

65'▲F. Wagner←▼S. Beikert

65'▲L. Marx←▼L. Kritter

78'▲M. Hütter←▼L. Safranek

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

KohlstadtBaumertWagnerMarxHütterJörnsRewerk

Manager: B. Hoffmann

61'▲A. Dardari←▼G. Degtjarevs

61'▲M. Kalemba←▼Y. Azahaf

61'▲N. Leipold←▼D. Azakir

77'▲A. Bagdadi←▼D. Kaygin

78'▲J. Amann←▼D. Gleiber

Mainz 05 U19 substitutes

DardariKalembaLeipoldBagdadiAmannWiesnetZuther