Astoria Walldorf U19 4–2 Kaiserslautern U19

Astoria Walldorf U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kaiserslautern U19

L. Baltzer 89'

J. Boziaris 59'

M. Hauswirth 55'

F. Wagner 31'

M. Bangura 90+1'

T. Walker 39'

10/17/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 7Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Astoria Walldorf U1935%

×Draw20%

Kaiserslautern U1945%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astoria Walldorf U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.25

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.96

Kaiserslautern U19

2.25

Kaiserslautern U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 59 away

1.65

creates per match

1.66

2.83

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.65

Kaiserslautern U19

1.66

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.83

Kaiserslautern U19

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf U19 or draw

55%

Astoria Walldorf U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

80%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

65%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

18%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

86%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

58%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

31%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

89%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

65%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.83 · 23 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.27 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.65 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.66 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

35%

level

20%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

45%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

F. Wagner

39'

T. Walker

46'

K. Merk← M. Bauer

46'

M. Bangura← M. Ludwig

55'

M. Hauswirth

59'

J. Boziaris

72'

J. Laboard← F. Wagner

76'

D. Miftari← M. Müller

76'

D. Monteiro de Oliveira← N. Wettengl

79'

N. Wannemacher← J. Boziaris

84'

S. Belvari← L. Safranek

89'

V. Kim← M. Hauswirth

89'

L. Baltzer

90+1'

M. Bangura

Astoria

Kaiserslautern

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Boziaris

⚽

▼

Hauswirth

⚽

▼

Wagner

▼

Safranek

Manager: Roberto Pinto

72'▲J. Laboard←▼F. Wagner

79'▲N. Wannemacher←▼J. Boziaris

84'▲S. Belvari←▼L. Safranek

89'▲V. Kim←▼M. Hauswirth

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

LaboardWannemacherBelvariKimHerboldMülbertHilke

Manager: A. Bugera

46'▲K. Merk←▼M. Bauer

46'▲M. Bangura←▼M. Ludwig

76'▲D. Miftari←▼M. Müller

76'▲D. Monteiro de Oliveira←▼N. Wettengl

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

MerkBanguraMiftariOliveiraSaitiWernerSchamber

U19 Bundesliga: Astoria Walldorf U19 4–2 Kaiserslautern U19

Astoria Walldorf U19 beat Kaiserslautern U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 17, 2021.

Goals: F. Wagner (31'), T. Walker (39'), M. Hauswirth (55'), J. Boziaris (59'), L. Baltzer (89'), M. Bangura (90+1').

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark in Walldorf.

Astoria Walldorf U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Astoria Walldorf U19 4–2 Kaiserslautern U19