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Astoria Walldorf U19 vs Eintracht Trier U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Astoria Walldorf U19
Astoria Walldorf U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Trier U19
Eintracht Trier U19
11/19/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 10Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Astoria Walldorf U1958%
×Draw19%
Eintracht Trier U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astoria Walldorf U19
2.42
Eintracht Trier U19
1.47

Astoria Walldorf U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf U19
1.65
Eintracht Trier U19
0.10

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf U19
2.83
Eintracht Trier U19
3.20

finishing

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par
Eintracht Trier U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf U19 ↓

Eintracht Trier U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf U19 or draw
77%
Astoria Walldorf U19 or Eintracht Trier U19
81%
Draw or Eintracht Trier U19
42%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+
37%
Eintracht Trier U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals
91%
Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals
69%
Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals
43%
Eintracht Trier U19 1+ goals
77%
Eintracht Trier U19 2+ goals
43%
Eintracht Trier U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Eintracht Trier U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.83 · 23 matches

Eintracht Trier U19 away — creates 0.10, concedes 3.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.65 + Eintracht Trier U19 defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.42

Eintracht Trier U19 attack 0.10 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more
58%
level
19%
Eintracht Trier U19 scores more
23%

Astoria Walldorf U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Astoria Walldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Astoria Walldorf U19 vs Eintracht Trier U19

Astoria Walldorf U19 beat Eintracht Trier U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark in Walldorf.