Astoria Walldorf U19 1–3 Bayern München U19

Astoria Walldorf U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Bayern München U19

L. Safranek 34'

L. Klanac 81'

A. Ibrahimović 25'

P. Wanner 14'

10/8/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 6Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Astoria Walldorf U1922%

×Draw18%

Bayern München U1960%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astoria Walldorf U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.75

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.67

Bayern München U19

2.75

Bayern München U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 70 away

1.65

creates per match

2.67

2.83

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.65

Bayern München U19

2.67

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.83

Bayern München U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf U19 or draw

40%

Astoria Walldorf U19 or Bayern München U19

82%

Draw or Bayern München U19

78%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

10%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

81%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

50%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

23%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

93%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

75%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.83 · 23 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.65 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bayern München U19 attack 2.67 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

22%

level

18%

Bayern München U19 scores more

60%

Bayern München U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

P. Wanner

25'

A. Ibrahimović

34'

L. Safranek

46'

N. Aséko Nkili← A. Pavlović

63'

L. Klanac← P. Wanner

63'

V. Manuba← B. Hepburn

75'

M. Pignotti← L. Marx

75'

S. Beikert← F. Wagner

77'

M. Schablas← Y. Qashi

81'

L. Klanac

88'

R. Deziel← L. Becker

90+1'

B. Hetemi← N. Wannemacher

90+1'

M. Rewerk← F. Herbold

90+1'

P. Kohlstadt← L. Baumert

Astoria

Bayern

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Roberto Pinto

75'▲M. Pignotti←▼L. Marx

75'▲S. Beikert←▼F. Wagner

90+1'▲B. Hetemi←▼N. Wannemacher

90+1'▲M. Rewerk←▼F. Herbold

90+1'▲P. Kohlstadt←▼L. Baumert

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

PignottiBeikertHetemiRewerkKohlstadtThunertOnohiol

Manager: M. Demichelis

46'▲N. Aséko Nkili←▼A. Pavlović

63'▲L. Klanac←▼P. Wanner

63'▲V. Manuba←▼B. Hepburn

77'▲M. Schablas←▼Y. Qashi

88'▲R. Deziel←▼L. Becker

Bayern München U19 substitutes

NkiliKlanacManubaSchablasDezielBallisEmci

U19 Bundesliga: Astoria Walldorf U19 1–3 Bayern München U19

Bayern München U19 beat Astoria Walldorf U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 8, 2022.

Goals: P. Wanner (14'), A. Ibrahimović (25'), L. Safranek (34'), L. Klanac (81').

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark in Walldorf.

Astoria Walldorf U19 vs Bayern München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Astoria Walldorf U19 1–3 Bayern München U19