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Astoria Walldorf II vs SGV Freiberg — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
FT
0 – 2
SGV Freiberg
SGV Freiberg
9/13/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Astoria Walldorf II14%
×Draw16%
SGV Freiberg71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astoria Walldorf II
1.18
SGV Freiberg
2.81

SGV Freiberg creates 138% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf II
1.62
SGV Freiberg
3.08

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf II
2.54
SGV Freiberg
0.73

finishing

Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par
SGV Freiberg+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf II ↓

SGV Freiberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf II or draw
29%
Astoria Walldorf II or SGV Freiberg
84%
Draw or SGV Freiberg
86%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
5%
SGV Freiberg wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
69%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
33%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
12%
SGV Freiberg 1+ goals
94%
SGV Freiberg 2+ goals
76%
SGV Freiberg 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
16%
SGV Freiberg (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

SGV Freiberg away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.62 + SGV Freiberg defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.18

SGV Freiberg attack 3.08 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Astoria Walldorf II scores more
14%
level
16%
SGV Freiberg scores more
71%

SGV Freiberg at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "SGV Freiberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Astoria Walldorf II 0–2 SGV Freiberg

SGV Freiberg beat Astoria Walldorf II 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Walldorf.