Astoria Walldorf II 2–2 Reutlingen: Result & Stats

Astoria Walldorf II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Reutlingen

3/5/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 23Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Astoria Walldorf II35%

×Draw21%

Reutlingen44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astoria Walldorf IIExpected goals in this matchReutlingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

2.04

Astoria Walldorf II

1.80

Reutlingen

2.04

Reutlingen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 93 away

1.62

creates per match

1.54

2.54

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf II

1.62

Reutlingen

1.54

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf II

2.54

Reutlingen

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par

Reutlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf II ↓

Reutlingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf II or draw

56%

Astoria Walldorf II or Reutlingen

79%

Draw or Reutlingen

65%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+

18%

Reutlingen wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals

83%

Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals

54%

Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals

27%

Reutlingen 1+ goals

87%

Reutlingen 2+ goals

60%

Reutlingen 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)

44%

Reutlingen (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Reutlingen away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.62 + Reutlingen defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.80

Reutlingen attack 1.54 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Astoria Walldorf II scores more

35%

level

21%

Reutlingen scores more

44%

Reutlingen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reutlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff