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Astoria Walldorf II vs Neckarsulmer SU — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
4/14/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 29Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Astoria Walldorf II35%
×Draw22%
Neckarsulmer SU43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astoria Walldorf II
1.69
Neckarsulmer SU
1.89

Neckarsulmer SU creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 42 away

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf II
1.62
Neckarsulmer SU
1.24

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf II
2.54
Neckarsulmer SU
1.76

finishing

Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par
Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf II ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf II or draw
57%
Astoria Walldorf II or Neckarsulmer SU
78%
Draw or Neckarsulmer SU
65%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
17%
Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
82%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
50%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
24%
Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
85%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
56%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
45%
Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.62 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Astoria Walldorf II scores more
35%
level
22%
Neckarsulmer SU scores more
43%

Neckarsulmer SU at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Astoria Walldorf II 1–0 Neckarsulmer SU

Astoria Walldorf II beat Neckarsulmer SU 1-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Walldorf.