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Astoria Walldorf II vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
4/23/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 31Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Astoria Walldorf II39%
×Draw22%
Freiburger FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astoria Walldorf II
1.84
Freiburger FC
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 42 away

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf II
1.62
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf II
2.54
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf II ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf II or draw
61%
Astoria Walldorf II or Freiburger FC
78%
Draw or Freiburger FC
61%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
21%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
84%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
55%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
28%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
84%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
54%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
50%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.62 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.84

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Astoria Walldorf II scores more
39%
level
22%
Freiburger FC scores more
39%

Astoria Walldorf II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Astoria Walldorf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Astoria Walldorf II 0–4 Freiburger FC

Freiburger FC beat Astoria Walldorf II 4-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Walldorf.