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Astoria Walldorf II vs CFR Pforzheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
FT
1 – 3
CFR Pforzheim
CFR Pforzheim
10/1/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 11Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Astoria Walldorf II29%
×Draw21%
CFR Pforzheim50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astoria Walldorf II
1.58
CFR Pforzheim
2.13

CFR Pforzheim creates 35% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 93 away

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf II
1.62
CFR Pforzheim
1.71

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf II
2.54
CFR Pforzheim
1.53

finishing

Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par
CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf II ↓

CFR Pforzheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf II or draw
50%
Astoria Walldorf II or CFR Pforzheim
79%
Draw or CFR Pforzheim
71%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
13%
CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
79%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
47%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
21%
CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals
88%
CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals
63%
CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
36%
CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

CFR Pforzheim away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.62 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

CFR Pforzheim attack 1.71 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Astoria Walldorf II scores more
29%
level
21%
CFR Pforzheim scores more
50%

CFR Pforzheim at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Astoria Walldorf II 1–3 CFR Pforzheim

CFR Pforzheim beat Astoria Walldorf II 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 1, 2021.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Walldorf.