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Astoria Walldorf II vs Bruchsal — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Bruchsal
Bruchsal
4/30/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 33Kunstrasenplatzn FCA Walldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Astoria Walldorf II44%
×Draw20%
Bruchsal36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astoria Walldorf II
2.25
Bruchsal
2.01

Astoria Walldorf II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf II
1.62
Bruchsal
1.48

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf II
2.54
Bruchsal
2.88

finishing

Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par
Bruchsal+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf II ↓

Bruchsal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf II or draw
64%
Astoria Walldorf II or Bruchsal
80%
Draw or Bruchsal
56%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
26%
Bruchsal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
89%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
65%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
39%
Bruchsal 1+ goals
87%
Bruchsal 2+ goals
59%
Bruchsal 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
55%
Bruchsal (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Bruchsal away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.62 + Bruchsal defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.25

Bruchsal attack 1.48 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Astoria Walldorf II scores more
44%
level
20%
Bruchsal scores more
36%

Astoria Walldorf II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Astoria Walldorf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Astoria Walldorf II vs Bruchsal

Bruchsal beat Astoria Walldorf II 4-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatzn FCA Walldorf in Walldorf.