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Aston Villa W vs Fylde W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
FT
11 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
Fylde W
Fylde W
1/29/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundPoundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aston Villa W58%
×Draw17%
Fylde W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aston Villa W
3.10
Fylde W
2.04

Aston Villa W creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Aston Villa W
3.71
Fylde W
2.38

allows per match

Aston Villa W
1.71
Fylde W
2.50

finishing

Aston Villa W+0.00on par
Fylde W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa W ↓

Fylde W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Aston Villa W or draw
75%
Aston Villa W or Fylde W
83%
Draw or Fylde W
42%

Winning margin

Aston Villa W wins by 2+
39%
Fylde W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aston Villa W 1+ goals
95%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
81%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
58%
Fylde W 1+ goals
87%
Fylde W 2+ goals
60%
Fylde W 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
70%
Fylde W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Fylde W away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa W attack 3.71 + Fylde W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.10

Fylde W attack 2.38 + Aston Villa W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Aston Villa W scores more
58%
level
17%
Fylde W scores more
25%

Aston Villa W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Aston Villa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aston Villa W vs Fylde W

Aston Villa W beat Fylde W 11-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.