Aston Villa W 9–0 Bristol Rovers W: Result & Stats

Aston Villa W

9 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Bristol Rovers W

1/12/2025

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundPoundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Aston Villa W52%

×Draw18%

Bristol Rovers W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston Villa WExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

2.27

Aston Villa W

2.94

Bristol Rovers W

2.27

Aston Villa W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

3.71

creates per match

2.83

1.71

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Aston Villa W

3.71

Bristol Rovers W

2.83

allows per match

Aston Villa W

1.71

Bristol Rovers W

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa W ↓

Bristol Rovers W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Aston Villa W or draw

70%

Aston Villa W or Bristol Rovers W

82%

Draw or Bristol Rovers W

48%

Winning margin

Aston Villa W wins by 2+

33%

Bristol Rovers W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Aston Villa W 1+ goals

95%

Aston Villa W 2+ goals

79%

Aston Villa W 3+ goals

55%

Bristol Rovers W 1+ goals

90%

Bristol Rovers W 2+ goals

66%

Bristol Rovers W 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)

63%

Bristol Rovers W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Bristol Rovers W away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa W attack 3.71 + Bristol Rovers W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.94

Bristol Rovers W attack 2.83 + Aston Villa W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aston Villa W scores more

52%

level

18%

Bristol Rovers W scores more

30%

Aston Villa W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aston Villa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff