Aston Villa 1–4 West Ham: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.11

Aston Villa

1.67

West Ham

1.11

Aston Villa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

1.48

creates per match

1.06

1.17

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.48

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.17

West Ham

1.85

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Aston Villa+0.30scores more

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

75%

Aston Villa or West Ham

76%

Draw or West Ham

50%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

27%

West Ham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

81%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

50%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

23%

West Ham 1+ goals

67%

West Ham 2+ goals

30%

West Ham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

67%

West Ham (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 27 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.48 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.67

West Ham attack 1.06 + Aston Villa defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aston Villa scores more

50%

level

24%

West Ham scores more

25%

Aston Villa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

D. Rice

West Ham · M

8.6

Match Events

7'

B. Johnson↳ D. Rice

15'

A. Young← J. Ramsey

34'

O. Watkins↳ E. Buendía

37'

Kurt ZoumaPenalty cancelled

38'

D. Rice↳ S. Benrahma

49'

Kortney HauseCard reviewed

50'

Ezri Konsa

50'

Ezri KonsaCard upgrade

52'

T. Mings← E. Buendía

64'

M. Lanzini← S. Benrahma

72'

A. El Ghazi← L. Bailey

79'

79'

79'

80'

84'

90+1'

V. Coufal← Pablo Fornals

90+1'

N. Vlašić← J. Bowen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonWest

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots21

3Corners6

7Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots21

3On Target8

5Off Target5

1Blocked8

6Inside Box13

3Outside Box8

Passing

42%Possession58%

333Total Passes459

244Accurate Passes382

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0