Aston Villa 0–0 West Ham: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

West Ham

9/16/2019

Premier League · Round 5Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Aston Villa48%

×Draw24%

West Ham27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.18

Aston Villa

1.65

West Ham

1.18

Aston Villa creates 40% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 35 away

1.45

creates per match

1.06

1.29

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.45

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.29

West Ham

1.85

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Aston Villa+0.34scores more

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

73%

Aston Villa or West Ham

76%

Draw or West Ham

52%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

25%

West Ham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

81%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

49%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

23%

West Ham 1+ goals

69%

West Ham 2+ goals

33%

West Ham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

64%

West Ham (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 29 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.45 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.65

West Ham attack 1.06 + Aston Villa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aston Villa scores more

48%

level

24%

West Ham scores more

27%

Aston Villa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Ł. Fabiański

West Ham · G

8.0

Match Events

23'

Arthur Masuaku

28'

Jack Grealish

29'

Mark Noble

62'

Pablo Fornals← A. Yarmolenko

66'

Ahmed El Mohamady← Jota Peleteiro

67'

Arthur Masuaku

67'

Arthur Masuaku

69'

P. Zabaleta← Felipe Anderson

77'

Tyrone Mings

81'

Douglas Luiz← M. Nakamba

85'

K. Davis← F. Guilbert

90+1'

F. Balbuena← M. Noble

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonWest

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots13

2Corners4

13Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots13

5On Target1

4Off Target5

1Blocked7

5Inside Box6

5Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

408Total Passes470

329Accurate Passes391

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides3