Aston Villa 3–3 Preston: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Preston

Y. Bolasie 90+1'

T. Abraham 37'

J. Kodjia 26'

L. Moult 86'

P. Gallagher 79'

D. Johnson 56' (pen)

10/2/2018

Championship · Round 11Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Aston Villa46%

×Draw24%

Preston30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.31

Aston Villa

1.69

Preston

1.31

Aston Villa creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 183 away

2.00

creates per match

1.03

1.58

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Aston Villa

2.00

Preston

1.03

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.58

Preston

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aston Villa+0.00on par

Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

70%

Aston Villa or Preston

76%

Draw or Preston

54%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

24%

Preston wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

82%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

50%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

24%

Preston 1+ goals

73%

Preston 2+ goals

38%

Preston 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

61%

Preston (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

Preston away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.38 · 183 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 2.00 + Preston defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Preston attack 1.03 + Aston Villa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aston Villa scores more

46%

level

24%

Preston scores more

30%

Aston Villa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

P. Gallagher

Preston · M

8.8

Match Events

26'

J. Kodjia↳ Ahmed El Mohamady

37'

T. Abraham↳ J. McGinn

46'

D. Johnson← R. Ledson

54'

James Chester

56'

J. Bree← T. Abraham

56'

D. JohnsonPenalty

64'

Ben Davies

71'

Jack Grealish

74'

Y. Bolasie← J. Kodjia

77'

P. Gallagher← T. Barkhuizen

78'

John McGinn

79'

P. Gallagher

83'

G. Whelan← C. Hourihane

83'

L. Moult← D. Fisher

86'

L. Moult↳ P. Gallagher

87'

Lukas Nmecha

89'

Ben Pearson

90'

Daniel Johnson

90+1'

Y. Bolasie↳ A. Tuanzebe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonPreston

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots19

4Corners4

13Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots19

6On Target7

3Off Target11

3Blocked1

7Inside Box14

5Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

391Total Passes519

304Accurate Passes427

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Aston Villa vs Preston

Aston Villa and Preston drew 3-3 in Championship on October 2, 2018.

Goals: J. Kodjia (26'), T. Abraham (37'), D. Johnson (56' pen), P. Gallagher (79'), L. Moult (86'), Y. Bolasie (90+1').

Preston controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Villa Park in Birmingham.

Aston Villa vs Preston — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Aston Villa vs Preston