Aston Villa 1–1 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester City

L. Bailey 74'

E. Haaland 50'

9/3/2022

Premier League · Round 6Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Aston Villa34%

×Draw25%

Manchester City41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.50

Aston Villa

1.34

Manchester City

1.50

Manchester City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 33 away

1.48

creates per match

1.77

1.22

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.48

Manchester City

1.77

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.22

Manchester City

1.21

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.31scores more

Manchester City-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

59%

Aston Villa or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

66%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

15%

Manchester City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

74%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

39%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

15%

Manchester City 1+ goals

78%

Manchester City 2+ goals

44%

Manchester City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

45%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 28 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.48 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Manchester City attack 1.77 + Aston Villa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aston Villa scores more

34%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

41%

Manchester City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. De Bruyne

Manchester City · M

8.2

Match Events

26'

Matty Cash

27'

A. Young← M. Cash

50'

E. Haaland↳ K. De Bruyne

65'

Philippe Coutinho← J. McGinn

71'

Lucas Digne

73'

R. Mahrez← Bernardo Silva

74'

L. Bailey↳ J. Ramsey

80'

N. Aké← K. Walker

90+1'

E. Buendía← L. Bailey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonManchester

Overview

28%Possession72%

3Total Shots13

1Corners4

7Fouls6

Shots

3Total Shots13

1On Target4

1Off Target5

1Blocked4

2Inside Box8

1Outside Box5

Passing

28%Possession72%

287Total Passes763

203Accurate Passes673

71%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

5Offsides3