Aston Villa 0–0 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester City

11/8/2015

Premier League · Round 12Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Aston Villa33%

×Draw25%

Manchester City43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.56

Aston Villa

1.33

Manchester City

1.56

Manchester City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

1.45

creates per match

1.84

1.29

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.45

Manchester City

1.84

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.29

Manchester City

1.21

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.34scores more

Manchester City-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

57%

Aston Villa or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

67%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

14%

Manchester City wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

74%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

38%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

15%

Manchester City 1+ goals

79%

Manchester City 2+ goals

46%

Manchester City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

43%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 29 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.21 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.45 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

Manchester City attack 1.84 + Aston Villa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aston Villa scores more

33%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

43%

Manchester City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

V. Kompany

Manchester City · D

7.7

Match Events

25'

Jesús Navas← W. Bony

39'

Nicolás Otamendi

65'

C. N'Zogbia← Carles Gil

72'

L. Bacuna← S. Sinclair

78'

F. Delph← Y. Touré

84'

R. Gestede← J. Ayew

84'

K. Iheanacho← R. Sterling

90'

Brad Guzan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonManchester

Overview

40%Possession60%

3Total Shots13

3Corners8

0Fouls0

Shots

3Total Shots13

0On Target3

3Off Target5

0Blocked5

1Inside Box10

2Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

410Total Passes578

323Accurate Passes492

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1