Aston Villa 1–2 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Bournemouth

Douglas Luiz 71'

H. Wilson 12'

J. King 2' (pen)

8/17/2019

Premier League · Round 2Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Aston Villa44%

×Draw24%

Bournemouth33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.41

Aston Villa

1.67

Bournemouth

1.41

Aston Villa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

1.45

creates per match

1.53

1.29

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.45

Bournemouth

1.53

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.29

Bournemouth

1.88

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.34scores more

Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

67%

Aston Villa or Bournemouth

76%

Draw or Bournemouth

56%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

23%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

81%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

50%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

23%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

76%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

41%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

57%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 29 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.45 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + Aston Villa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aston Villa scores more

44%

level

24%

Bournemouth scores more

33%

Aston Villa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Ahmed El Mohamady

Aston Villa · D

7.9

Match Events

2'

J. KingPenalty

12'

H. Wilson

36'

Philip Billing

46'

A. Surman← P. Billing

59'

Nathan Aké

71'

Douglas Luiz↳ J. Grealish

75'

Jota Peleteiro← A. El Ghazi

76'

D. Solanke← H. Wilson

87'

K. Davis← Trézéguet

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonBournemouth

Overview

62%Possession38%

21Total Shots12

10Corners5

10Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots12

7On Target4

9Off Target4

5Blocked4

11Inside Box8

10Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

490Total Passes295

402Accurate Passes208

82%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2