Aston Villa 2–1 AZ Alkmaar: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AZ Alkmaar

11/9/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 4Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aston Villa53%

×Draw23%

AZ Alkmaar24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchAZ Alkmaar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.19

Aston Villa

1.85

AZ Alkmaar

1.19

Aston Villa creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 26 away

2.29

creates per match

1.38

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Aston Villa

2.29

AZ Alkmaar

1.38

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.00

AZ Alkmaar

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aston Villa+0.00on par

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

AZ Alkmaar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

76%

Aston Villa or AZ Alkmaar

77%

Draw or AZ Alkmaar

47%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

30%

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

84%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

55%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

28%

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

70%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

33%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

68%

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 2.29 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.85

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.38 + Aston Villa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Aston Villa scores more

53%

level

23%

AZ Alkmaar scores more

24%

Aston Villa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff