Aston Villa U18 1–3 West Ham United U18

Aston Villa U18

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

West Ham United U18

C. Brannigan 61'

E. Sowunmi 67' (pen), 56' (pen), 45+3'

11/9/2024

League #696 · South - 10Bodymoor Heath Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Aston Villa U1835%

×Draw20%

West Ham United U1844%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston Villa U18Expected goals in this matchWest Ham United U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.22

Aston Villa U18

1.98

West Ham United U18

2.22

West Ham United U18 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 12 away

2.04

creates per match

2.42

2.02

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Aston Villa U18

2.04

West Ham United U18

2.42

allows per match

Aston Villa U18

2.02

West Ham United U18

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aston Villa U18+0.00on par

West Ham United U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa U18 ↓

West Ham United U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Aston Villa U18 or draw

56%

Aston Villa U18 or West Ham United U18

80%

Draw or West Ham United U18

65%

Winning margin

Aston Villa U18 wins by 2+

19%

West Ham United U18 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Aston Villa U18 1+ goals

86%

Aston Villa U18 2+ goals

59%

Aston Villa U18 3+ goals

31%

West Ham United U18 1+ goals

89%

West Ham United U18 2+ goals

65%

West Ham United U18 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa U18 (draw refunded)

44%

West Ham United U18 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa U18 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 2.02 · 54 matches

West Ham United U18 away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa U18 attack 2.04 + West Ham United U18 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.98

West Ham United U18 attack 2.42 + Aston Villa U18 defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aston Villa U18 scores more

35%

level

20%

West Ham United U18 scores more

44%

West Ham United U18 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "West Ham United U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

J. Wilson

37'

B. Burrowes

45+3'

E. Sowunmi↳ E. Adiele

56'

E. SowunmiPenalty

61'

F. Hooper

61'

C. Brannigan

66'

R. Hargan← A. Dike

67'

E. SowunmiPenalty

80'

T. Bloomfield← R. Fortes

80'

M. Meade← C. Brannigan

85'

M. Balogun-Ajisafe← J. Ajala

90+7'

M. Halim← R. Oyebade

Aston

West

1

Hooper

5

▼

Oyebade

11

A

Adiele

2

Medine

4

Golambeck

10

⚽3

6

8

3

9

▼

Ajala

7

▼

1

5

4

2

3

▼

8

6

7

9

11

10

⚽

▼

Brannigan

Manager: J. Shan

80'▲T. Bloomfield←▼R. Fortes

80'▲M. Meade←▼C. Brannigan

Aston Villa U18 substitutes

12Bloomfield16Meade15Moreland13Oakley14Briscoe

Manager: L. Coggin

66'▲R. Hargan←▼A. Dike

85'▲M. Balogun-Ajisafe←▼J. Ajala

90+7'▲M. Halim←▼R. Oyebade

West Ham United U18 substitutes

15Hargan16Balogun-Ajisafe12Halim14Nwosu13Awesu