Aston Villa U18 5–2 Southampton U18: Result & Stats

Aston Villa U18

FT

5 – 2

HT: 4 – 2

Southampton U18

O. Bindley 90'

A. Lynskey 45', 33'

M. Meade 35', 28'

L. Hawe 38', 8'

10/25/2025

League #696 · South - 8Bodymoor Heath Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Aston Villa U1838%

×Draw19%

Southampton U1842%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston Villa U18Expected goals in this matchSouthampton U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

2.42

Aston Villa U18

2.31

Southampton U18

2.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 12 away

2.04

creates per match

2.83

2.02

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Aston Villa U18

2.04

Southampton U18

2.83

allows per match

Aston Villa U18

2.02

Southampton U18

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aston Villa U18+0.00on par

Southampton U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa U18 ↓

Southampton U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Aston Villa U18 or draw

58%

Aston Villa U18 or Southampton U18

81%

Draw or Southampton U18

62%

Winning margin

Aston Villa U18 wins by 2+

22%

Southampton U18 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Aston Villa U18 1+ goals

90%

Aston Villa U18 2+ goals

67%

Aston Villa U18 3+ goals

40%

Southampton U18 1+ goals

91%

Southampton U18 2+ goals

69%

Southampton U18 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa U18 (draw refunded)

48%

Southampton U18 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa U18 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 2.02 · 54 matches

Southampton U18 away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa U18 attack 2.04 + Southampton U18 defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.31

Southampton U18 attack 2.83 + Aston Villa U18 defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aston Villa U18 scores more

38%

level

19%

Southampton U18 scores more

42%

Southampton U18 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Southampton U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

L. Hawe↳ T. Rohart-Brown

28'

M. Meade↳ T. Bloomfield

33'

A. Lynskey↳ K. Quinn

35'

M. Meade↳ J. McGrath

38'

L. Hawe

45'

A. Lynskey↳ J. McGrath

90'

O. Bindley

Aston

Southampton

Manager: Richard Beale

Manager: Andrew Surman