Asteras Tripolis 1–0 Panserraikos: Result & Stats

Asteras Tripolis

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Panserraikos

5/12/2026

Super League 1 · Relegation Group - 8Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Asteras Tripolis53%

×Draw25%

Panserraikos22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Asteras TripolisExpected goals in this matchPanserraikos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.96

Asteras Tripolis

1.65

Panserraikos

0.96

Asteras Tripolis creates 72% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 52 away

1.20

creates per match

0.81

1.10

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Asteras Tripolis

1.20

Panserraikos

0.81

allows per match

Asteras Tripolis

1.10

Panserraikos

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par

Panserraikos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asteras Tripolis ↓

Panserraikos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Asteras Tripolis or draw

78%

Asteras Tripolis or Panserraikos

75%

Draw or Panserraikos

47%

Winning margin

Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+

29%

Panserraikos wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals

81%

Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals

49%

Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals

23%

Panserraikos 1+ goals

62%

Panserraikos 2+ goals

25%

Panserraikos 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)

71%

Panserraikos (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asteras Tripolis at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Panserraikos away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asteras Tripolis attack 1.20 + Panserraikos defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.65

Panserraikos attack 0.81 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Asteras Tripolis scores more

53%

level

25%

Panserraikos scores more

22%

Asteras Tripolis at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Asteras Tripolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff