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Asteras Tripolis vs Panathinaikos — Super League 1 2018

Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos
3/22/2026Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 26Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Asteras Tripolis35%
×Draw29%
Panathinaikos37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asteras Tripolis
1.10
Panathinaikos
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 137 away

creates per match

Asteras Tripolis
1.20
Panathinaikos
1.17

allows per match

Asteras Tripolis
1.10
Panathinaikos
1.01

finishing

Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par
Panathinaikos+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asteras Tripolis ↓

Panathinaikos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Asteras Tripolis or draw
63%
Asteras Tripolis or Panathinaikos
71%
Draw or Panathinaikos
65%

Winning margin

Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+
14%
Panathinaikos wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals
67%
Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals
30%
Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals
10%
Panathinaikos 1+ goals
68%
Panathinaikos 2+ goals
32%
Panathinaikos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)
49%
Panathinaikos (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asteras Tripolis at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Panathinaikos away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asteras Tripolis attack 1.20 + Panathinaikos defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Panathinaikos attack 1.17 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Asteras Tripolis scores more
35%
level
29%
Panathinaikos scores more
37%

Panathinaikos at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Panathinaikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Asteras Tripolis 1–2 Panathinaikos

Panathinaikos beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 in Super League 1 on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium in Tripoli.