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Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis — Super League 1 2018

Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aris Thessalonikis
Aris Thessalonikis
12/23/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 16Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Asteras Tripolis38%
×Draw28%
Aris Thessalonikis34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asteras Tripolis
1.19
Aris Thessalonikis
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 137 away

creates per match

Asteras Tripolis
1.20
Aris Thessalonikis
1.09

allows per match

Asteras Tripolis
1.10
Aris Thessalonikis
1.18

finishing

Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par
Aris Thessalonikis+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asteras Tripolis ↓

Aris Thessalonikis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Asteras Tripolis or draw
66%
Asteras Tripolis or Aris Thessalonikis
72%
Draw or Aris Thessalonikis
62%

Winning margin

Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+
16%
Aris Thessalonikis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals
70%
Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals
33%
Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals
12%
Aris Thessalonikis 1+ goals
67%
Aris Thessalonikis 2+ goals
30%
Aris Thessalonikis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)
53%
Aris Thessalonikis (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asteras Tripolis at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Aris Thessalonikis away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asteras Tripolis attack 1.20 + Aris Thessalonikis defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.09 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Asteras Tripolis scores more
38%
level
28%
Aris Thessalonikis scores more
34%

Asteras Tripolis at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Asteras Tripolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Asteras Tripolis 2–1 Aris Thessalonikis

Asteras Tripolis beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 in Super League 1 on December 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis in Tripoli.