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Aster Brasil SP U20 vs Corinthians U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Aster Brasil SP U20
Aster Brasil SP U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
Renato Santos 90+8'
Kayke 64'
Pedro Henrique 20'
6/8/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Ildeu Silvestre do Carmo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aster Brasil SP U2023%
×Draw28%
Corinthians U2049%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aster Brasil SP U20
0.80
Corinthians U20
1.33

Corinthians U20 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

creates per match

Aster Brasil SP U20
0.40
Corinthians U20
1.46

allows per match

Aster Brasil SP U20
1.20
Corinthians U20
1.21

finishing

Aster Brasil SP U20+0.00on par
Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aster Brasil SP U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aster Brasil SP U20 or draw
51%
Aster Brasil SP U20 or Corinthians U20
72%
Draw or Corinthians U20
77%

Winning margin

Aster Brasil SP U20 wins by 2+
7%
Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Aster Brasil SP U20 1+ goals
55%
Aster Brasil SP U20 2+ goals
19%
Aster Brasil SP U20 3+ goals
5%
Corinthians U20 1+ goals
74%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
38%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Aster Brasil SP U20 (draw refunded)
31%
Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aster Brasil SP U20 at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aster Brasil SP U20 attack 0.40 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.80

Corinthians U20 attack 1.46 + Aster Brasil SP U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aster Brasil SP U20 scores more
23%
level
28%
Corinthians U20 scores more
49%

Corinthians U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Pedro Henrique
64'
Kayke
90+8'
Renato Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aster Brasil SP U20 vs Corinthians U20

Corinthians U20 beat Aster Brasil SP U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 8, 2024.

Goals: Pedro Henrique (20'), Kayke (64'), Renato Santos (90+8').

The match was played at Estádio Ildeu Silvestre do Carmo in Itaquaquecetuba, São Paulo.