Astana U19 1–1 Dinamo Zagreb U19: Result & Stats

Astana U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Zagreb U19

V. Prokopenko 44'

L. Šipoš 87'

11/7/2018

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundAstana Arena (Astana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Astana U1958%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Zagreb U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astana U19Expected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.83

Astana U19

1.71

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.83

Astana U19 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

0.91

0.75

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Astana U19

1.50

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

allows per match

Astana U19

0.75

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Astana U19+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astana U19 ↓

Dinamo Zagreb U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Astana U19 or draw

82%

Astana U19 or Dinamo Zagreb U19

76%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb U19

42%

Winning margin

Astana U19 wins by 2+

33%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Astana U19 1+ goals

82%

Astana U19 2+ goals

51%

Astana U19 3+ goals

24%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

56%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

20%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Astana U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astana U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Dinamo Zagreb U19 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astana U19 attack 1.50 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.71

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 0.91 + Astana U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Astana U19 scores more

58%

level

24%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

18%

Astana U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Astana U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

T. Hrvoj← E. Julardžija

44'

V. Prokopenko

65'

L. Šipoš← R. Baturina

87'

L. Šipoš

88'

A. Tsoy← M. Zhakipbayev

88'

L. Radić← L. Pavlak

90+1'

D. Zhugunis← R. Makhan

90+1'

I. Abenov← L. Skvortsov

Astana

Dinamo

1

4

5

3

2

11

6

8

▼

Julardžij

10

▼

Pavlak

9

▼

7

90

33

71

93

47

29

▼

Zhakipbay

79

▼

Makhan

87

Kairkenov

91

▼

Skvortsov

80

⚽

Prokopenk

81

Karimov

Manager: V. Marunyak

88'▲A. Tsoy←▼M. Zhakipbayev

90+1'▲D. Zhugunis←▼R. Makhan

90+1'▲I. Abenov←▼L. Skvortsov

Astana U19 substitutes

61Tsoy67Zhugunis82Abenov72Basmanov78Pichkarev83Murzabek85Medvedev

Manager: I. Jovičević

38'▲T. Hrvoj←▼E. Julardžija

65'▲L. Šipoš←▼R. Baturina

88'▲L. Radić←▼L. Pavlak

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

13Hrvoj18Šipoš15Radić14Jelenić17Kapitanović16Mihaljević12Klemenčić