Assyriska FF 4–0 Umea FF: Result & Stats

Assyriska FF

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Umea FF

8/3/2025

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 16Sodertalje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Assyriska FF54%

×Draw22%

Umea FF24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Assyriska FFExpected goals in this matchUmea FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.29

Assyriska FF

2.03

Umea FF

1.29

Assyriska FF creates 57% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 60 away

1.69

creates per match

0.83

1.75

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Assyriska FF

1.69

Umea FF

0.83

allows per match

Assyriska FF

1.75

Umea FF

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Assyriska FF+0.00on par

Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assyriska FF ↓

Umea FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Assyriska FF or draw

76%

Assyriska FF or Umea FF

78%

Draw or Umea FF

46%

Winning margin

Assyriska FF wins by 2+

32%

Umea FF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Assyriska FF 1+ goals

87%

Assyriska FF 2+ goals

60%

Assyriska FF 3+ goals

33%

Umea FF 1+ goals

72%

Umea FF 2+ goals

37%

Umea FF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Assyriska FF (draw refunded)

69%

Umea FF (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assyriska FF at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

Umea FF away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assyriska FF attack 1.69 + Umea FF defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.03

Umea FF attack 0.83 + Assyriska FF defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Assyriska FF scores more

54%

level

22%

Umea FF scores more

24%

Assyriska FF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Assyriska FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff