Assyriska BK 0–5 Utsikten: Result & Stats

Assyriska BK

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Utsikten

6/12/2019

Svenska Cupen · 1st RoundRuddalens IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Assyriska BK23%

×Draw17%

Utsikten60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Assyriska BKExpected goals in this matchUtsikten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.94

Assyriska BK

1.83

Utsikten

2.94

Utsikten creates 61% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

1.67

creates per match

1.54

4.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Assyriska BK

1.67

Utsikten

1.54

allows per match

Assyriska BK

4.33

Utsikten

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Assyriska BK+0.00on par

Utsikten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assyriska BK ↓

Utsikten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Assyriska BK or draw

40%

Assyriska BK or Utsikten

83%

Draw or Utsikten

77%

Winning margin

Assyriska BK wins by 2+

11%

Utsikten wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Assyriska BK 1+ goals

84%

Assyriska BK 2+ goals

54%

Assyriska BK 3+ goals

28%

Utsikten 1+ goals

95%

Utsikten 2+ goals

79%

Utsikten 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Assyriska BK (draw refunded)

28%

Utsikten (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assyriska BK at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assyriska BK attack 1.67 + Utsikten defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Utsikten attack 1.54 + Assyriska BK defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Assyriska BK scores more

23%

level

17%

Utsikten scores more

60%

Utsikten at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Utsikten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff