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Assyriska BK vs Mjallby AIF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Assyriska BK
Assyriska BK
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
9/30/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundRuddalens IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Assyriska BK8%
×Draw11%
Mjallby AIF81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assyriska BK
1.08
Mjallby AIF
3.56

Mjallby AIF creates 230% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Assyriska BK
1.67
Mjallby AIF
2.79

allows per match

Assyriska BK
4.33
Mjallby AIF
0.50

finishing

Assyriska BK+0.00on par
Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assyriska BK ↓

Mjallby AIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Assyriska BK or draw
19%
Assyriska BK or Mjallby AIF
89%
Draw or Mjallby AIF
92%

Winning margin

Assyriska BK wins by 2+
3%
Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Assyriska BK 1+ goals
66%
Assyriska BK 2+ goals
29%
Assyriska BK 3+ goals
10%
Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
97%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
86%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Assyriska BK (draw refunded)
9%
Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assyriska BK at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assyriska BK attack 1.67 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mjallby AIF attack 2.79 + Assyriska BK defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Assyriska BK scores more
8%
level
11%
Mjallby AIF scores more
81%

Mjallby AIF at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Assyriska BK 0–5 Mjallby AIF

Mjallby AIF beat Assyriska BK 5-0 in Svenska Cupen on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Ruddalens IP 1 in Västra Frölunda.