Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Asswehly vs Shabab Al-Ghar — Premier League 2019

Asswehly
Asswehly
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Shabab Al-Ghar
Shabab Al-Ghar
3/13/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · West - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Asswehly50%
×Draw26%
Shabab Al-Ghar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asswehly
1.50
Shabab Al-Ghar
0.93

Asswehly creates 61% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 16 away

creates per match

Asswehly
1.37
Shabab Al-Ghar
1.00

allows per match

Asswehly
0.85
Shabab Al-Ghar
1.63

finishing

Asswehly+0.00on par
Shabab Al-Ghar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asswehly ↓

Shabab Al-Ghar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Asswehly or draw
77%
Asswehly or Shabab Al-Ghar
74%
Draw or Shabab Al-Ghar
50%

Winning margin

Asswehly wins by 2+
26%
Shabab Al-Ghar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Asswehly 1+ goals
78%
Asswehly 2+ goals
44%
Asswehly 3+ goals
19%
Shabab Al-Ghar 1+ goals
61%
Shabab Al-Ghar 2+ goals
24%
Shabab Al-Ghar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Asswehly (draw refunded)
68%
Shabab Al-Ghar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asswehly at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Shabab Al-Ghar away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asswehly attack 1.37 + Shabab Al-Ghar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shabab Al-Ghar attack 1.00 + Asswehly defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Asswehly scores more
50%
level
26%
Shabab Al-Ghar scores more
23%

Asswehly at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Asswehly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asswehly vs Shabab Al-Ghar

Asswehly beat Shabab Al-Ghar 2-1 in Premier League on March 13, 2025.