Asswehly 2–0 Al Malaab El Libby: Result & Stats

Asswehly

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Al Malaab El Libby

4/9/2026

Premier League · Group A - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Asswehly45%

×Draw29%

Al Malaab El Libby25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AsswehlyExpected goals in this matchAl Malaab El Libby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.85

Asswehly

1.24

Al Malaab El Libby

0.85

Asswehly creates 46% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 27 away

1.37

creates per match

0.85

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Asswehly

1.37

Al Malaab El Libby

0.85

allows per match

Asswehly

0.85

Al Malaab El Libby

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asswehly+0.00on par

Al Malaab El Libby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asswehly ↓

Al Malaab El Libby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Asswehly or draw

75%

Asswehly or Al Malaab El Libby

71%

Draw or Al Malaab El Libby

55%

Winning margin

Asswehly wins by 2+

20%

Al Malaab El Libby wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Asswehly 1+ goals

71%

Asswehly 2+ goals

35%

Asswehly 3+ goals

13%

Al Malaab El Libby 1+ goals

57%

Al Malaab El Libby 2+ goals

21%

Al Malaab El Libby 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Asswehly (draw refunded)

64%

Al Malaab El Libby (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asswehly at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Al Malaab El Libby away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asswehly attack 1.37 + Al Malaab El Libby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Al Malaab El Libby attack 0.85 + Asswehly defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Asswehly scores more

45%

level

29%

Al Malaab El Libby scores more

25%

Asswehly at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Asswehly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff