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Asswehly vs Al Dahra Tripoli FC — Premier League 2019

Asswehly
Asswehly
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
12/30/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Asswehly48%
×Draw29%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asswehly
1.29
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
0.81

Asswehly creates 59% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 9 away

creates per match

Asswehly
1.37
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
0.78

allows per match

Asswehly
0.85
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1.22

finishing

Asswehly+0.00on par
Al Dahra Tripoli FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asswehly ↓

Al Dahra Tripoli FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Asswehly or draw
77%
Asswehly or Al Dahra Tripoli FC
71%
Draw or Al Dahra Tripoli FC
52%

Winning margin

Asswehly wins by 2+
22%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Asswehly 1+ goals
72%
Asswehly 2+ goals
37%
Asswehly 3+ goals
14%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 1+ goals
56%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 2+ goals
19%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Asswehly (draw refunded)
67%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asswehly at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Al Dahra Tripoli FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asswehly attack 1.37 + Al Dahra Tripoli FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Al Dahra Tripoli FC attack 0.78 + Asswehly defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Asswehly scores more
48%
level
29%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC scores more
23%

Asswehly at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Asswehly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asswehly 1–1 Al Dahra Tripoli FC

Asswehly and Al Dahra Tripoli FC drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 30, 2025.