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Assisense vs Santa Fé FC — Paulista Série B 2026

Assisense
Assisense
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Santa Fé FC
Santa Fé FC
J. S. Fernando 76'
Joao Sacca 45'
Da Ora 42'
Samuka Santos 18'
L. Henrique 44', 25' (pen)
6/5/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Assisense51%
×Draw22%
Santa Fé FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assisense
1.96
Santa Fé FC
1.39

Assisense creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Assisense
1.92
Santa Fé FC
1.00

allows per match

Assisense
1.77
Santa Fé FC
2.00

finishing

Assisense+0.00on par
Santa Fé FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assisense ↓

Santa Fé FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Assisense or draw
73%
Assisense or Santa Fé FC
78%
Draw or Santa Fé FC
49%

Winning margin

Assisense wins by 2+
29%
Santa Fé FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Assisense 1+ goals
86%
Assisense 2+ goals
58%
Assisense 3+ goals
31%
Santa Fé FC 1+ goals
75%
Santa Fé FC 2+ goals
40%
Santa Fé FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Assisense (draw refunded)
65%
Santa Fé FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assisense at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Santa Fé FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assisense attack 1.92 + Santa Fé FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Santa Fé FC attack 1.00 + Assisense defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Assisense scores more
51%
level
22%
Santa Fé FC scores more
27%

Assisense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Assisense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Samuka Santos
20'
Thiago Felipe
25'
L. HenriquePenalty
42'
Da Ora
44'
L. Henrique
45'
Joao Sacca
76'
J. S. Fernando

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Assisense vs Santa Fé FC

Assisense beat Santa Fé FC 4-2 in Paulista Série B on June 5, 2026.

Goals: Samuka Santos (18'), L. Henrique (25' pen, 44'), Da Ora (42'), Joao Sacca (45'), J. S. Fernando (76').